Hindsight Optimization for FPL

This season certainly proved how random FPL could get, full of difficult decisions and regret. Every GW, we’d look at our team and wish that we’d that shiny player everyone else had. Sometimes Bruno, sometimes Gundogan, and sometimes Martinez. Week after week we were filled with regret after not buying (or worse: benching) that player. Of course with hindsight being 20/20, it’s easy to see what you missed. But what if you could get the ‘Almanac’ just like in Back to the Future 2 and know how ever week would play out?

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Using Optimization Modeling for Expected Threat

If you know little about football analytics, I can safely assume that you have heard of expected goals (xG). For those who don’t know, xG is a metric showing the probability of a shot to be successful with the information we have, such as position, body part, and defender positions.1 Another of such metrics is expected assists (xA) which can measure the probability that a pass leads to a goal.

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O-Ring Optimization for FPL

“The Numbers Game”1 is a great read for anyone interested in football (soccer) analytics. The book covers a wide range of events where numbers give insights to football professionals on topics like possession, short/long passes, and team evaluation. I have recently read the section about the “O-Ring theory”, which brought a couple of new ideas regarding FPL. O-Ring theory says that a team (or a system) is as strong as its weakest link.

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On the meaning of optimal in FPL

The amount of available content for Fantasy Premier League (FPL) is unbelivable and hard to follow. Among all, one of my favorite resources is the “Corridor of Uncertainty” podcast as they focus on modeling and analytics part of FPL. Their guest in the latest episode was Abdul Rehman (FPL Salah), who is a well-known manager in the FPL community. I truly enjoyed their discussion and noticed that the word “optimal” is thrown around quite a bit.

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On FPL, Optimization, and Ownership Weights

Robert Cialdini mentions scarcity as one of the 6 principles of persuasion. The nature of seeking something of great interest is embedded inside all of us. Our first reaction when we see other people do something is to follow them. Even though it does not make too much sense, we follow the herd even in a competitive game, like Fantasy Premier League. Last week’s (GW11) unfortunate gold rush to Jota proved that we fear being left out.

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Notes from FPL Gameweek 2 and Optimization

I am playing Fantasy Premier League this seasons for the first time and I can already tell you that it is frustrating, despite using a mathematical model. Even though I put no manual input of my own (all decisions are up to the mathematical model), I am watching almost all EPL games to improve the model and I can say that it is very addictive. Growing up, I never liked watching live sports that much.

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Plotting a piecewise function graph in LaTeX

I absolutely adore LaTeX generated documents and personally use it pretty much for anything I can. Plotting graphs is one of my favorite thing to do. TikZ library makes it quite easy. To plot a piecewise function, I happened to learn about \tikzmath which I have never used before. Using it, you can define values and also perform math operations. I used this approach to set values and plot the graph dynamically.

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What to do for a better password security and management

“I don’t know that much about cyber, but I do think that’s the number one problem with mankind.” Warren Buffett We should be talking about password safety after 773 million records exposed. I’m one of those people who complain when IT forces to change passwords at regular intervals. It is a nightmare for me to come up with secure passwords and even when I can, I have a hard time remembering them.

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Using Linux on Windows

Linux is arguably the most developer-friendly operating system. From automation to feature-rich text editors, I see Linux as a must for any programmer. Powerful and hackable Linux ecosystem and the huge community make finding solutions to common problems very trivial. If you need to use Windows for a variety of reasons, you are not out of options when it comes to using Linux. Over the years, I have tried a lot of different ways to enable Linux functionality on Windows, some are better than others but all of them have specific use cases.

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Writing scripts with Reddit API

In this post, I will show how you can use Python to gather content and create a simple web page around it. See the first part to learn how to register an app to Reddit API and get started. Setup I often use PyCharm or Jupyter notebook for Python, but any Python environment will do the trick. You need to have a Reddit app id and app secret already at hand for this part.

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